A Comparison of Forecasting Methods for Hotel Revenue Management
نویسندگان
چکیده
The arrivals forecast is one of the key inputs for a successful hotel revenue management system, but no research on the best forecasting method has been conducted. In this research, we used data from Choice Hotels and Marriott Hotels to test a variety of forecasting methods and to determine the most accurate method. Preliminary results using the Choice Hotel data show that pickup methods and regression produced the lowest error, while the booking curve and combination forecasts produced fairly inaccurate results. The more in-depth study using the Marriott Hotel data showed that exponential smoothing, pickup, and moving average models were the most robust.
منابع مشابه
Solving Bi-objective Model of Hotel Revenue Management Considering Customer Choice Behavior Using Meta-heuristic Algorithms
The problem of maximizing the benefit from a specified number of a particular product with respect to the behavior of customer choices is regarded as revenue management. This managerial technique was first adopted by the airline industries before being widely used by many others such as hotel industries. The scope of this research is mainly focused on hotel revenue management, regarding which a...
متن کاملA Call for Exploratory Data Analysis in Revenue Management Forecasting: a case study of a small and independent hotel in The Netherlands
Using five years of data collected from a small and independent hotel in The Netherlands this case study explores RMS data as a means to seek new insights into occupancy forecasting. The study provides an insight into the random nature of group cancellations, an important but neglected aspect in hotel revenue management modeling. The empirical study also shows that in a local market context dem...
متن کاملA Discrete Stochastic Approach to Hotel Revenue Management
A linear programming model has been presented for finding an appropriate planning in order to maximize hotel revenue. In this model, a special planning horizon has been considered that includes several busy days of a year. There are several reservation periods that may start a few months earlier. Each period of reservation may have different prices and so result different incomes. Hotel custo...
متن کاملForecasting uncertain hotel room demand
Mihir Rajopadhye, Mounir Ben Ghaliay and Paul P. Wang Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Duke University Durham, North Carolina 27708-0291 Timothy Baker and Craig V. Eister Bass Hotels and Resorts Atlanta, Georgia 30346-2149 Abstract Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that ca...
متن کاملIntelligent System to Support Judgmental Business Forecasting: The Case of Hotel Room Demand in Hotel Revenue Management System
In this paper a new hotel revenue management model is proposed to provide hotel managers with a flexible and efficient decision support tool for room revenue maximization. The proposed system is composed of an advanced room demand forecast model and an optimization model that takes group reservations into account. The system also allows for expert intervention to update system parameters and ou...
متن کامل